Introduction
The Madrid derby between Rayo Vallecano and CD Leganés is always a fiercely contested affair, with both teams battling for supremacy in the Spanish capital. As these two sides prepare to face off, we analyze the latest team news, predicted lineups, and tactical approaches based on recent form and historical matchups 3512.
Recent Form and Context
Rayo Vallecano comes into this match in relatively solid form, sitting 10th in La Liga with 9 points from 7 matches. They’re currently on a four-match unbeaten run that includes impressive draws against Atletico Madrid and Girona, plus a 3-1 victory over Osasuna 3. Manager Iñigo Pérez has stabilized the team after a difficult previous season where they finished just above the relegation zone.
Leganés, newly promoted after winning the Segunda División title last season, have found life tougher in the top flight. With just 6 points from 7 games, they sit 15th, only one point above the drop zone. Their recent 1-1 draw with Getafe ended a three-game losing streak, offering some hope for improvement 3.
Rayo Vallecano Predicted Lineup
Rayo are expected to line up in their familiar 4-2-3-1 formation with several key players returning from injury 35:
Goalkeeper: Augusto Batalla – The Argentine shot-stopper has been reliable this season with 1 clean sheet in his last 10 matches 5.
Defense:
- Right Back: Ivan Balliu – The experienced full-back provides width and defensive solidity
- Center Backs: Florian Lejeune and Abdul Mumin – A physically imposing partnership
- Left Back: Andrei Ratiu – Normally a right-back but may shift sides due to Chavarria’s injury
Midfield:
- Defensive Midfield: Unai López and Pathé Ciss – López offers creativity while Ciss provides steel
- Attacking Midfield: Jorge de Frutos (right), Isi Palazón (center), Álvaro García (left) – De Frutos has 2 goals this season 5
Striker: Sergio Camello – The young forward leads the line with support from Palazón
Key Absentees: Alfonso Espino and Diego Méndez remain injured, while Pep Chavarria is a doubt after coming off injured against Girona 3.
CD Leganés Predicted Lineup
Leganés manager Borja Jiménez is likely to deploy a 3-4-3 formation that can transition to a 5-4-1 defensively 312:
Goalkeeper: Marko Dmitrović – The Serbian international has kept 4 clean sheets in his last 10 matches 12
Defense:
- Center Backs: Jorge Sáenz, Sergio González, Matija Nastasić – Sáenz scored against Getafe
- Wing Backs: Valentin Rosier (right) and Javier Hernández (left) – Provide attacking width
Midfield:
- Central Midfield: Seydouba Cissé and Renato Tapia – Physical presence in midfield
- Attacking Midfield: Juan Cruz (right) and Óscar Rodríguez (left) – Cruz has 2 goals this season 3
Forwards:
- Miguel de la Fuente (center) – Leads the line with support from wide players
Key Absentees: Naim García and Yvan Neyou remain unavailable through injury 3.
Tactical Analysis
Rayo will likely dominate possession (averaging 44.7% this season) and look to exploit Leganés’ flanks through their wingers De Frutos and Álvaro García 5. Their midfield trio of López, Ciss and Palazón provides a good balance of creativity and defensive cover.
Leganés, who average just 38.9% possession, will probably sit deeper and look to hit Rayo on the counter through their pacy wingers Cruz and Rodríguez 512. Their three-man defense has been vulnerable this season, conceding an average of 1.7 goals per game 12.
Set pieces could prove crucial – Rayo averages 5.2 corners per game while Leganés concedes 7.8 5. Rayo’s tall defenders like Lejeune and Mumin will look to capitalize on these situations.
Head-to-Head Record
Historically, this has been a closely contested fixture:
- Last 22 meetings: Rayo 9 wins, Leganés 7 wins, 6 draws 14
- Rayo have won the last two encounters (3-0 and 2-1) 3
- Leganés’ last victory came in December 2020 3
Key Players to Watch
Rayo Vallecano:
- Isi Palazón (2 goals, 2 assists) – The creative heartbeat of the team 5
- Randy Nteka (3 goals) – Impact substitute who can change games 12
- Florian Lejeune – Organizes the defense and contributes to buildup play
CD Leganés:
- Juan Cruz (2 goals) – Dangerous winger who cuts inside 3
- Jorge Sáenz (1 goal) – Threat from set pieces 3
- Óscar Rodríguez – Creative force against his former club
Prediction
Most analysts favor Rayo to edge this encounter:
- Sports Mole predicts a 2-1 Rayo victory 3
- SportsGambler gives Rayo a 60% chance of winning 5
- Dimers’ statistical model gives Rayo a 37% win probability vs Leganés’ 33.7% 15
The most likely scorelines according to various models are:
- 2-1 Rayo 3
- 1-0 Rayo 5
- 1-1 Draw 15
Conclusion
This Madrid derby promises to be a tightly contested affair between two teams with contrasting styles. Rayo’s greater top-flight experience and home advantage (at Campo de Fútbol de Vallecas) gives them a slight edge, but Leganés’ fighting spirit as a newly promoted side makes them dangerous opponents. The battle between Rayo’s creative midfield and Leganés’ organized defense could determine the outcome of this intriguing matchup.